Conflict-Imposed Shutdowns and Infant Mortality

Abstract:

Weekly sit-at-home orders issued by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) have repeatedly disrupted markets, transport, and schools across Southeast Nigeria since August 2021. I estimate the health effects of these mandates using the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey birth histories (2014–2023) in a difference-in-differences design comparing the five treated Southeast states to neighboring South-South states before and after the onset of institutionalized sit-at-home orders. Event-study estimates show no evidence of differential pre-trends. The main result is a precisely estimated null on average: infant mortality does not change meaningfully in the Southeast relative to the South-South after August 2021, and this finding is robust across specifications and placebo tests. Using broader national comparison groups produces modestly more negative estimates, consistent with contemporaneous mortality shocks elsewhere in Nigeria rather than sit-at-home exposure. Effects are heterogeneous by wealth: mortality increases in the fourth wealth quintile but declines among the wealthiest households. These results provide the first causal evidence on IPOB sit-at-home mandates and highlight that conflict-imposed shutdowns may shift inequality in early-life survival even when average effects are small.